To coalesce or not? Parliament wins either way

The ongoing discussions between the parties bring to mind the exuberant mating rituals of birds of paradise. The two bigger parties have taken on, to a greater and lesser extent, the role of the exuberant male. Hopping about in the political jungle, flashing their best profiles and trying anything to entice the Libs onto their fallen log. Even so, the wooing of the dowdy female by the well-groomed male is excitable, enthusiastic and shameless.

Sadly, simple enthusiasm, as Gordon Brown has found out, is not always enough. The dowdy Nick Clegg has been beguiled by a better-groomed political crooner. And the mating dance is on.

The problem for David Cameron is that he really doesn't want to be there. The problem for Gordon Brown is that he wants to be there too much. And the problem for Nick Clegg is that he might catch some nasty political virus from either of the others - and he's all too well aware of how dangerous it is. But he has to take the risk. And they all need to carry out this elaborate dance for fear of being accused that they just haven't tried hard enough.

I think I've taken this metaphor as far as it'll go without causing myself major coniptions. Surely we are witnessing an elaborate performance that nobody can want to work out.

David Cameron is hoping against hope he can persuade the Lib Dems to enter into some kind of entente cordiale but he must be very worried at the idea of an actual coalition government. He's failed to secure a mandate for his party and the membership he's ignored for so long are beginning to lose patience. There is nothing the Conservatives' grassroots and backbenchers like more than brutally handbagging other Tories (particularly their leadership) in public. He may be able to hold them at bay over Europe, where he's happily marched off to the fringes, but the Lib Dems won't give them room to do anything unless electoral reform is used to lure them to the table. And preparing a pincer from the right will be some of the old timers who made John Major's premiership so uncomfortable. They have plenty of experience in forcing their agenda.

Nick Clegg is in an even worse position. By doing a deal with the Tories, he will alienate great swathes of his vote and may not even secure the electoral reform he desires as the Tories must be confident of getting enough support within Parliament to suffocate reform. In the meantime, Nick Clegg will have hitched his wagon to a Tory party busily slashing public services and transforming itself into a party unelectable for a generation as was reportedly suggested by Governor Mervyn King of the Bank of England.

The single person who may have an interest in forming a coalition is Gordon Brown - but his party must loathe the idea. Finally they've got the breathing space they've been craving. They can ditch their hapless, technocratic, moody leader and choose someone a little more human. They'll hope the Lib Dems and Tories will stagger on together for a few months before collapsing in a heap of recriminations and sniping. It says something about GB's self delusion that he thinks he can make the parliamentary maths work in his favour.

But there is one winner in all this. Parliament itself. No MP should be allowed to complain that they are being marginalised at a time when they will each have more power than they have had for over a decade.